Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa Betting Analysis & Pick

Based only on the xG difference per 90 of these two teams this season, Villa has been slightly better than Forest.

Image Credit - google By Shivesh

But when home field advantage is taken into account, there isn't much between these two teams when they play at the City Ground.

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Given how terrible the attack has been, Villa definitely shouldn't be an even money road favourite against anyone in the Premier League

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This is similar to what happened to Wolves when they travelled to Bournemouth with their weak offence.

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Forest's defensive analytics show they're ready for a good regression, and if Cooper plays new signings Serge Aurier and Remo Freuler

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While it's hard to trust either club right now for different reasons, I'll choose Forest as the more desperate home side that has shown signs of life in attack

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